863
FXUS61 KOKX 250534
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
134 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes through the area overnight. A surface
trough lingers nearby on Tuesday followed by another low passing
well south and east of the area late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. High pressure then builds in from the southwest on
Thursday, passing to the south on Friday as a weak disturbance
passes to the north. A frontal system is forecast to impact the
area over the weekend into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Patchy fog, some of which is locally dense, continues across
the forecast area with light winds and residual low level
moisture following a rainy Monday. Guidance has largely been to
quick with drying out the low level and a dissipating cold front
works across the area overnight. Improvement will be slow from
west to east. An SPS up for the area will likely need to be
extended for portions of the area at 2 am.

Mid and upper level clouds associated with an upper jet will
make for a mostly cloudy night. Lows will fall into the 30s
inland, and the upper 40s to lower 40s at the coast. A few
locations across western Orange county could get to freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Broad upper troughing will persist over the northeast through
Wednesday. Model guidance has come into much better agreement
with keeping a weak low pressure far enough away from the
region for little to no precip Tuesday night and early
Wednesday.

Surface low pressure will slowly spin across northern New
England and southeast Canada on Tuesday. A surface trough will
likely persist over the region, especially in the afternoon.
High pressure will remain well to our south. A modest pressure
gradient over the area along with a well mixed boundary layer
will promote a breezy Tuesday with potential of SW gusts 20-25
mph, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. The deep mixing
and SW flow along with late march sun under partly cloudy skies
should allow temperatures to warm well into the 50s. Some of the
usual warm spots could touch 60 degrees in the afternoon.

High clouds begin increasing in the evening as the next 500 mb
shortwave begins to amplify to our west. The associated vort
energy passes to the south and interacts with the lingering
surface trough over the eastern seaboard to develop a low
pressure Tuesday night. Previous model cycles were differing in
the placement of the energy along with the associated developing
surface low. The 12z guidance has come into much better
agreement with the developing low and any associated lift and
precip remaining well south and east of Long Island Tuesday
night into Wednesday. NBM PoPs appear to be too high given the
latest trends and have gone much lower for this time period. The
system is progressive and while there is some amplification
aloft, there does not appear to be enough time to have this low
develop close enough to the coast to support another period of
widespread precip. Have trended PoPs much lower, but still will
show precip probabilities around 20 to 30 percent. Thermal
profiles would support a wet snow/cold rain mix inland and cold
rain closer to the coast if precip were to develop. However, as
noted this is becoming a much lower chance and it is quite
possible the entire area remains dry.

The moves further offshore Wednesday afternoon with the upper
trough continuing aloft. Weak cold advection is likely in the
afternoon, but clearing skies should lead to temperatures
approaching seasonable levels in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
W winds could also become a bit gusty in the afternoon with
potential of gusts up to 20 or 25 mph as high pressure starts
building in from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Longwave trough axis will be shifting through the region
during Wednesday night and will be east of us by Thursday
morning. A cyclonic flow however remains aloft through Thursday
night. Moisture will be limited during this period, so expecting
dry weather. The only exception would be Thursday night as a
weak warm front provides some lift for perhaps a stray sprinkle
or flurry. Highs mostly 50-55 on Thursday, then 55-60 for
Friday.

A weak cold front then passes through from the north with more
of a zonal flow aloft, most likely during Friday night. Models
differ regarding the location of the stalled front, making the
temperature and precip chance forecasts relatively lower in
confidence through at least Sunday. It would appear that the
cold front stalls not to far to our south through the weekend
before moving back north as a warm front Sunday night into
Monday with perhaps some help from a low level jet as low
pressure shifts into the eastern Great Lakes Region. A cold
front would then follow during Monday afternoon or night when a
shortwave helps the flow aloft become more amplified.

Went with 20-30% chance of rain for Friday night through Sunday
as overrunning remains a constant threat. Chances then increase
to 50% Sunday night through Monday evening, accounting for both
warm and cold front passages as the center of the approaching
storm system draws nearer.

As for temperatures, NBM box and whisker plots for Saturday
through Monday continue to show 10 to 20 degree spreads between
the 25th and 75th percentiles, most notably for the high
temperatures. As previously mentioned, will go with the scenario
that the stalled front remains to our south through Sunday,
which aligns with climatology for this time of the year as the
parent low center of the upcoming storm is still well off to our
west and fairly weak through this time. This puts us on the
cooler side of the envelope for both Saturday and Sunday and
goes along the lines of the deterministic NBM forecast which is
cooler than its ensemble median and closer to the 25th
percentile. Then with a better chance of the warm front moving
north through the area, warmer temperatures on Monday versus the
weekend, but they could be tempered by potential cloud cover
and rainfall. Deterministic and median NBM are at least in
better agreement for temperatures on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A surface trough remains over the area today. Weak low pressure
passes well to our southeast tonight.

Some low stratus and patchy fog has developed and has brought
in some LIFR conditions. Improvement is expected between 06-09z
with a wind shift associated with a frontal passage. There is
some uncertainty with the timing of improving conditions this
morning. Conditions may not improve until closer to 12z. VFR
expected thereafter through the end of the TAF period.

W/SW flow continues through the forecast period with gusts to
around 25 kt developing 12Z to 14Z Tuesday. Occasional gusts up
to 30 kt are possible. Winds become light from the NW tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of improving fog and low cigs may not occur until closer
to 12z

Occasional gusts around 30 kt are possible today, mainly in the
mid to late morning hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. Afternoon W/NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of light rain. E wind gusts 15-
20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The SCA remains in effect on the ocean tonight. Winds will
continue to diminish early this evening, but seas will remain
elevated above 5 ft. The elevated seas are likely to persist
through Tuesday, especially east of Fire Island Inlet. Have
extended the SCA into the morning west of Fire Island Inlet and
into Tuesday evening to Moriches Inlet. East of Moriches the SCA
will now run through early Wednesday morning. Conditions will
otherwise remain below SCA levels on the waters tonight through
Wednesday.

Sub advisory conditions are expected on all waters Wednesday
night through Saturday with a relatively weak pressure gradient
through the period. There are however a few periods up through
Friday when gusts could be near 25kt on the ocean waters as the
gradient strengthens a little.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/JT/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion