024
FXUS61 KOKX 031125
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
725 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will be in place through tonight, and then
push slowly offshore Friday. A weak cold front pushes through
late Friday night into early Saturday. High pressure briefly
returns Saturday into Saturday night, moving offshore Sunday.
Another, stronger cold front passes through Sunday night into
Monday morning. Cool high pressure then builds in from the
northern Plains through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
There will be a fair amount of ridging in the mid and upper
levels with subsequent height rises. This will aid in
frontolysis, the weakening and dissolving of a cold front across
western portions of the CWA. After a good amount of clouds in
most place this morning, look for clouds to gradually give way
to sunshine, especially towards midday and into the afternoon.
Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer due to more in the
way of sunshine for the afternoon, despite a light onshore SE
wind. Many places should manage to reach the lower and middle
70s as the ridge axis builds across the region. This will aide
in high pressure getting re- established along the Northeast and
Mid Atlantic coast.

For tonight look for weak high pressure to be over the area.
This should help in getting some sinking motion on the synoptic
scale. This would promote some pockets of clear to partly cloudy
skies. This would lead to patchy fog where there is little to
no cloud cover as temps get close to the dew point, especially
in the more rural locations late at night. Night time minimums
should range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s closer to the
coast and the NYC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
During Friday the ridge axis gets further east and offshore. A
shortwave in semi-zonal flow gets into the eastern Great Lakes.
This would promote more of a southerly flow and slightly higher
dew points and humidity into the region. More clouds will move
across the region with a mid deck being more prevalent later in
the day. Temperatures will average above normal for early
October with mainly lower and middle 70s region wide. A cold
front will move across the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians
towards Friday evening. Skies will become mostly cloudy Friday
night with a slight chance of showers across a good portion of
the CWA, with minimal shower chances across far eastern
sections. Temperatures should average a few degrees above normal
with a more humid flow just preceding the cold front and some
cloud cover expected. The cold front is expected to be a weak
one, with only some showers scattered along and just ahead of
the boundary as indicated by high res NWP reflectivity progs. It
seems prudent to include slight chance of showers moving from
west to east throughout the night into early Saturday morning.
With much of the forcing going north of the CWA, the expectation
in terms of QPF is only for a few hundredths of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A rather quick flow will dominate across the northern tier
Saturday into the middle of next week. This flow will bring two
cold fronts across the region as Friday night into Saturday, and
Sunday night into Monday, as the associated low centers track
across southern Canada. The first cold front will be weak, and
with little upper support, so will maintain the slight chance
probabilities. The second front will be stronger, and with a
little better upper energy and forcing will have a period of
likely probabilities across a portion of the northern zones late
Sunday night. And with little to no CAPE or instability will
not mention thunder. The airmass ahead of the second cold front
will be rather warm, with above normal temperatures, and leaned
toward the 75th and 90th percentiles for highs Saturday through
Monday. These were just a couple of degrees higher than the NBM
temperatures.

A much cooler airmass will move in behind the second cold front
as gusty northerly winds develop. This will bring in the cooler
air of the Autumn with temperatures several degrees below
normal Monday night into the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains over the area through tonight.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Patchy MVFR ceilings around 2500 ft possible until 13Z/14Z.
There is a low chance of MVFR ceilings and patchy fog late
tonight, mainly KSWF and possibly KHPN.

Light and variable to calm winds become S this morning, less
than 10kt, and then light and variable this evening into
tonight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected, however, there may be brief
MVFR ceilings around 2500 ft through 13Z/14Z, and included in a
TEMPO.


OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday through Saturday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers
with MVFR late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Sunday through Monday: VFR Sunday, then a chance of MVFR with a
chance of showers Sunday night into Monday morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly 4 ft seas on the ocean waters through today, with seas
subsiding closer to 3 ft late tonight and on Friday. The winds will
be relatively light with high pressure nearby resulting in a weak
pressure gradient. Winds and seas remain below SCA Saturday
through Sunday. With an increasing southerly flow ahead of an
approaching cold front Sunday night ocean seas build to 5 to 6
feet, and remain into Monday. With the winds shifting to the
west and northwest Monday ocean seas will subside Monday night,
falling below SCA levels Tuesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion